Canucks Stats: The strongest defences don't win the Stanley Cup (2024)

For all the buzz this season about the Vancouver Canucks’ offence, the entirety of their success has been built on their defensive play.

Article content

And that’s probably shouldn’t surprise you.

Article content

There is a reason why they say, “Show me a good coach and I’ll show you a great goalie.”

This season has been about the outstanding play of three Canucks goalies, but it’s also been about the play in front of them.

As things stand as of Thursday afternoon, the Canucks have given up the fifth-fewest goals in the league.

Being that strong defensively will give you a chance to win most nights.

Interestingly, since 2015, only three of the 20 Stanley Cup finalists have been in the top five defensive teams during the regular season.

The key, in other words, is to not be too defensive — you still need to push to score.

So, from close up, the Canucks haven’t been playing well lately, but when you zoom and look down from high above, the team’s numbers show their overall performance has them in contact with some true contenders.

Article content

Article content

The four teams who have given up less goals than Vancouver so far this season: Winnipeg, Florida, Carolina and Los Angeles.

The latter three are considered Cup contenders — but given the last decade, all are unlikely to be in the final.

Teams in the range of the Oilers, Bruins and Rangers, who all have given up a few more goals than the Canucks, look more in line with the historic trend.

Let’s talk a deeper look at the Canucks’ numbers to understand where they are at with two weeks to go until the playoffs.

55

According to MoneyPuck.com, the Canucks’ most recent expected-goals percentage, based on a 10-game average, is about 55 per cent.

Meaning that over the past 10 games or so, the Canucks’s shots have been a little better than the opposition’s — that based on past shot data, if all went as expected, the Canucks would have scored about 55 per cent of the goals over that time span.

Article content

And they have been in the positive for much of the new year. There were a couple dips in form in February, but for the most part the Canucks have been playing well.

Much of this is is driven by massively improved defensive play.

37.7

Here’s the thing about their defensive play.

At the beginning of March, the Canucks had dragged down their shot-attempts-against rate at even strength to just 37.7. That’s the best it has been all season.

This was despite some ugly results in late February. The truth was they were playing better, but they were still losing.

But it wasn’t a surprise that their results started to improve again about a month ago: remember that four-game winning streak in early March over the Ducks, Kings, Golden Knights and then Jets?

Article content

That streak was as they were dominating possession and preventing the opposition from getting many shots off.

It’s why there’s still reason to think this team could cause some damage in the playoffs, even if they’re in a slump right now.

But it is a little bit of a case of the stars aligning for them.

The good news is their shot attempts against is still at a relatively safe 42 per game.

52

Here’s the thing about that defensive improvement: their offence has slowed considerably.

They are still outshooting the opposition — they’ve taken 52 per cent of the shots over the past 10 games — but that control has been sliding for a while.

It was at 57 per cent a month ago. The Canucks were simply taking more shots a month ago.

They’re not now.

Article content

1.7

On the season, the Canucks have averaged 2.9 goals per game at five on five.

But over the past month, their finishing has nose-dived: they’ve scored just 1.7 goals per game at five on five over the past 10 games.

The league average unblocked-shot-attempt shooting percentage at five on five is about 6 per cent.

For a month now, the Canucks have been well below this figure.

They’ve been banging away with long shots, but those shots have less chance of going in than shots in close.

It’s no surprise head coach Rick Tocchet has been harping on his team finding ways to get themselves “inside” more. Shots from close to the net become goals more often.

pjohnston@postmedia.com

Article content